The federal government celebrates the miracle in the labor market. The conditions under which this recovery takes place, are sobering.
Lutz Getzschmann
Published in: Jungle World, 4 November 2010
http://jungle-world.com/artikel/2010/44/42007.htmlFederal Labour Minister Ursula von der Leyen (CDU) had It do not take to proclaim the good news in person. The number of unemployed had fallen below three million, with the message she surprised the public on Wednesday last week. With 2.945 million people registered as seeking employment, the lowest unemployment prevails in an October since 1992, said von der Leyen. And so no one overlooks the fact that this development is due to the excellent work of the government, the Labor Department is now launching a campaign to hang in throughout the Republic of posters on which the latest figures from the unemployment statistics are announced.
The media began to hurry to speak of a "job miracle", and promptly claimed in addition to the current administration are other the apparent success for themselves. The parliamentary secretary of the SPD parliamentary group, Thomas Oppermann, hastened the decline due to the crisis strategies of the grand coalition. And the former Chancellor Gerhard Schröder (SPD), to which many want to be in the party currently does not like popped up again out of the woodwork and made responsible for the unemployment figures now presented the adopted during his reign Hartz laws. Without the legislative changes of 2003 stands today as Germany, where are the neighboring countries now that would have addressed any reforms, claiming the comrade of the bosses.
The recovery is there, is the message, the rulers with their talk of the miracle to proclaim in the labor market. And all want to participate in the party to consolidate the FDP, whose approval ratings for months in the vicinity of five percent. Your new hope is Brüderle Rainer, who attracted attention not only from the leadership of the party in the past twelve months by negative headlines. The Federal Minister reiterated on Sunday his surprise plea for significant wage increases. Given the rebound in economic performance would have to "tough cuts of the past" not continue. However, he qualifies this statement begin simultaneously with the note. "Firm sales does not make the state" A clear rejection Brüderle also issued the call for a nationwide legal minimum wage, because if the wage is too high, it ultimately only endanger jobs.
The most striking thing is the spectacle to the new German "job miracle" even though the contrast between presentation and reality, but the fact that the tragic facts can be found everywhere. A few years ago had a critical Contemporary, was tricked when the unemployment figures, research in niche left postils and unemployed portals in order to learn approximately how it really looks like in the labor market. This is currently different. One is aware that the black-yellow government is desperately looking for positive headlines. In the mirror in the Süddeutsche Zeitung and the online portal of the evening news is, some malicious, some shyly laid calculated that the unemployment statistics is fined and the unrestrained growth "not important to the people," as the standard formulation is now. Only the Bild newspaper asked seriously: "Come now, ten golden years," The reason for this new honesty are less likely, however, in a new journalistic ethics, but rather in the dark sense that outside of the press conferences of the Federal Government and the major parties, hardly anyone can believe it.
If you look closely is because fixed quickly, concerns that the boom, especially small and precarious forms of employment. There are around five million people who pursue a job on the basis of 400 €. More than 2.2 million earned by a mini-job to something. About 4.2 million people are in employment, their pay is so low that they receive supplementary unemployment benefit II. Who at least 15 Working hours per week applies for some time no longer considered unemployed. ALG-I-recipients who are older than 58 years are not taken into account as one-euro jobbers and people who participate in training and rehabilitation measures. Almost 1.5 million people were recently in various measures, therefore they are not considered unemployed. There is also a "secret reserve" of up to one million people who would like a job for a livelihood, but not actively looking, either because they are financed through a family's income, find a nursery place for their children or simply do not have a chance to the labor market, or on unemployment benefits. Back in June The Federal Statistical Office announced that 8.6 million people looking for work. It is likely to have changed little since then, and in this magnitude moves accordingly the real dimension of unemployment, underemployment and economic marginalization.
Even with regard to the newly created jobs will be bleak from behind the facade, because the decline in official unemployment figures based on both statistical tricks on a large increase in temporary work. Much of the employment growth will take place in this segment, the number of temporary workers has now increased to 900 000. The data from the Federal Employment Agency (BA) Add suggests that the trend in the industry continues to reduce low-skilled jobs and to do the work of temporary workers. For the employee, the self can hardly be a working relationship in which they want to find yourself permanently.
Claus Matecki, a board member of the DGB says, "of an" abuse of temporary work. For disillusioned view it would probably consist of nothing but act as the use of this instrument for its original purpose. The national board of the DGB is estimated that at the end of the year will be more than a million temporary workers. In addition, many new jobs are still only temporary. A cursory look at the areas in which vacancies are filled, also reveals an imbalance: in health and social services, the number of social security contributions rose by 3.5 percent and economic services without temporary employment by 2.9 percent. In the manufacturing industry, however, there were 53 000 employees over the previous year less. Nevertheless, let
currently meet almost daring-looking projections. The Director of the Institute of German Economy in Cologne, Michael Huether, gave in an interview with the Passauer Neue Presse less than two million unemployed possible, and this already in 2012. Basis for such speculation are two main assumptions: First, it is hoped that a sustained recovery will create 400 000 new jobs, on the other it is predicted that the demographic changes will cause could be found for the disembarking from wage labor elderly more junior staff. Unlike in previous crises, this was the case in recent years, left more older workers leave their work, be succeeded as younger people. This relieved the development of statistics by more than 100 000 unemployed in the year. Already, the specter of Human Resources evoked - which is mildly absurd when one considers the reluctance of large companies, to provide adequate training capability. Above all, the hopes are likely to focus labor statistics that exceed the number of older unemployed people the magic of 58 years and thus fall out of the unemployment statistics. So ultimately is the finding that the real considerably smaller reduction in unemployment mainly through wage dumping and the creation of a broad low-wage sector is sought.
"Hartz IV effect," Hilmar Schneider, director says labor market at the Research Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) in Bonn - and is aware of the cynicism associated with this statement probably not aware of. It goes like this out that the threat of poverty and marginalization, especially among those "acts" that have just lost their jobs. Those affected would try anything to happen to this case can not. Schneider says that had the willingness to make concessions, increased with the introduction of Hartz IV. For example, more jobs would be accepted, the payment is smaller than it was in the previous employment of the case. This friendly description means nothing but a massive reduction in living standards of workers and a dramatic drop in the value of labor power.
The so vehemently argued, however, recovery could soon be over. Because it is based to a considerable extent on export surpluses. According to the Institute for Social Ecological Economic Research that provided in the second quarter of 2010, a growth contribution of 1.4 percentage points to GDP, which is about two-thirds of the increase. While the purchasing power will decline further, which hopes rest almost entirely on a further expansion of exports, therefore on the successful repression of foreign capital on the world market. Apart from the location-nationalist ideologies, which will return to popularity and not only play in the debate on the Greek public debt is important, but in the coming likely to occur in some months, trade union arguments again, there is little reason to believe that this expansion might persist permanently.
The two main segments of the German export surpluses, Europe and the U.S., are in a difficult economic situation. In the European countries make drastic austerity programs of various governments and the continued significant impact of the crisis for an economic stagnation, while it could be slowed in the U.S., the economic decline and possibly imminent hardly a new crisis. The compulsive euphoria that is currently disseminated by the federal government could, as early as next Year there are even more doubtful.
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