Monday, November 29, 2010

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pushed the screen

talked for weeks about an impending German politicians Irish national bankruptcy. Ireland now has the European rescue fund to complete.

Lutz Getzschmann

Published in: Jungle World, 25 November 2010

http://jungle-world.com/artikel/2010/47/42155.html

The Irish government will have to take massive support in the claim to prevent the collapse of its public finances. On Sunday, finance ministers agreed the euro zone to a general commitment to taking the land under the "Euro-rescue." Ireland needs to estimates by experts 40-100 billion euros to get its banking crisis under control. The redevelopment plan obviously helps the Euro countries, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and, from the EU budget, which will be supplemented by bilateral loans from the UK and Sweden. A week ago, the Irish government denied on financial aid from the European rescue fund need to be.

was compelled to take this step appeared to Ireland, not least by the German Federal Government. The fact that the rescue of the Irish banking system in danger of collapse, the government of Brian Cowen had brought in serious trouble, had long been known. The Irish government has taken over security for the ailing banking system of the country and therefore has a completely debt-ridden budget. Ireland is this year toward a budget deficit of 32 percent. The speculations of German politicians about a possible insolvency of Ireland appeared to put some momentum, which was finally no longer cope. Two weeks ago, had Irish Finance Minister Brian Lenihan also because the German government accused the sharp rise in risk premiums on Irish government bonds since the beginning of November was also due to statements of German politicians.

He referred to the vehement demands put forward by Chancellor Angela Merkel (CDU), in rescue operations for high-debt countries such as Ireland continue to use pull even bondholders. Merkel had taken hold in the EU summit in late October, a corresponding decision of principle. The German government has helped with keeping that interest rates for Irish and Portuguese government bonds had soared, said Greece Prime Minister Giorgos Papandreou on Monday in Paris. The German position on the question of who should be liable for the failure of a Euro-state, could drive a country into bankruptcy. The federal government insists that the end of the current "Euro-emergency parachute" in 2013, private investors are to be asked in a national bankruptcy to pay.

The prospect of defaulting States in the future hours of their debts or waived at all, have sometimes has led to a flight of Irish government bonds, which led to falling prices, driving yields higher. Since July, the interest rates on Irish government bonds with ten years Duration by about 1.8 percentage points higher, mid-November they were at nine per cent. Interest on the Portuguese government bonds rose during the same period from 6.1 to 7.0 percent. The returns are a measure of funding costs, that countries should expect the issuance of government bonds. did not record the debt of the Irish state is inevitable for the Irish Government to the "rescue" claim, but the speculation in Irish government bonds, which was triggered mainly by the federal government and at EU-level political support.

that the German government on its own its dominance within the EU plays out, pushes increasingly discontent. The German debt restructuring plans had made the bailout more likely from Ireland and Portugal, the Financial Times noted in the past week. When dealing with the German government heavily indebted EU countries it is also about the economic interests of major German banks. The FAZ reported that they hold over Irish borrowers around 138 billion dollars in claims.

But the demands of nationalizing Hypo Real Estate (HRE) from the Irish Central Government and local authorities would amount to 10.3 billion euros. In the first nine months of this year, the HRE further loss of 1.1 billion € has accumulated. Should now also in the event of bankruptcy, the Irish government debt is written off, this would be a disaster risk trophales testimony to the bailout policy of the CDU / FDP government. But many German banks are not yet available on the brink, hold large stocks of Irish government bonds.

likely also the federal government is also a strategic location for its handling of Ireland have financial crisis, as was observed already in the German attitude towards Greece. Federal Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble (CDU) had already before the EU Ministerial conference spoke of harsh conditions, be the subject of the restoration plan for Ireland am. European leaders had proposed an increase in corporate tax, which is 12.5 percent in Ireland so low that it has attracted in recent decades, many foreign companies, to the annoyance of other EU governments. This step has so far rejected by the Irish government, which fears for its appeal to foreign companies. Whether the government Cowen still in the position to be able to resist demands from their lenders, however, can be doubted. Realistic is probably also that there will be privatization of state enterprises and drastic cuts in the social system. Irish media reported that on Sunday adopted austerity program of the government include, among other things, cuts in child support, the minimum wages and unemployment benefits. By 2014 15 billion euros will be saved.

move fiscal policy in the euro countries on a narrow ridge The public debt increased in 2009 due to the various stimulus and bank restructuring in total to 79.2 percent of gross domestic product. In 2008 it stood at 69.8 percent. The federal government aims to trouble spots in Europe to get a grip and bring about the same time a dynamic neoliberal restructuring, which leads to a shift in political power relationships. The outright disenfranchisement economically troubled EU countries that will become economic protectorate of the EU and its main political and economic centers, France and Germany, is not only the fear of their own financial collapse due. This disenfranchisement is also part of a shock strategy, the highly indebted countries more than before dresseth to the needs of the economic center. In Ireland itself the humiliation that the participation of the "emergency parachute means" has led to a government crisis. For the population had this step as a shock, there was the first spontaneous demonstrations before the Irish Parliament. Several "analysts" look ahead, however, forward to the next potential crisis situations that have to reckon with in a similar manner urged by the German government and the EU under the "rescue" to be: Spain and Portugal.

Thursday, November 4, 2010

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The magic of numbers

The federal government celebrates the miracle in the labor market. The conditions under which this recovery takes place, are sobering.

Lutz Getzschmann

Published in: Jungle World, 4 November 2010

http://jungle-world.com/artikel/2010/44/42007.html

Federal Labour Minister Ursula von der Leyen (CDU) had It do not take to proclaim the good news in person. The number of unemployed had fallen below three million, with the message she surprised the public on Wednesday last week. With 2.945 million people registered as seeking employment, the lowest unemployment prevails in an October since 1992, said von der Leyen. And so no one overlooks the fact that this development is due to the excellent work of the government, the Labor Department is now launching a campaign to hang in throughout the Republic of posters on which the latest figures from the unemployment statistics are announced.

The media began to hurry to speak of a "job miracle", and promptly claimed in addition to the current administration are other the apparent success for themselves. The parliamentary secretary of the SPD parliamentary group, Thomas Oppermann, hastened the decline due to the crisis strategies of the grand coalition. And the former Chancellor Gerhard Schröder (SPD), to which many want to be in the party currently does not like popped up again out of the woodwork and made responsible for the unemployment figures now presented the adopted during his reign Hartz laws. Without the legislative changes of 2003 stands today as Germany, where are the neighboring countries now that would have addressed any reforms, claiming the comrade of the bosses.

The recovery is there, is the message, the rulers with their talk of the miracle to proclaim in the labor market. And all want to participate in the party to consolidate the FDP, whose approval ratings for months in the vicinity of five percent. Your new hope is Brüderle Rainer, who attracted attention not only from the leadership of the party in the past twelve months by negative headlines. The Federal Minister reiterated on Sunday his surprise plea for significant wage increases. Given the rebound in economic performance would have to "tough cuts of the past" not continue. However, he qualifies this statement begin simultaneously with the note. "Firm sales does not make the state" A clear rejection Brüderle also issued the call for a nationwide legal minimum wage, because if the wage is too high, it ultimately only endanger jobs.

The most striking thing is the spectacle to the new German "job miracle" even though the contrast between presentation and reality, but the fact that the tragic facts can be found everywhere. A few years ago had a critical Contemporary, was tricked when the unemployment figures, research in niche left postils and unemployed portals in order to learn approximately how it really looks like in the labor market. This is currently different. One is aware that the black-yellow government is desperately looking for positive headlines. In the mirror in the Süddeutsche Zeitung and the online portal of the evening news is, some malicious, some shyly laid calculated that the unemployment statistics is fined and the unrestrained growth "not important to the people," as the standard formulation is now. Only the Bild newspaper asked seriously: "Come now, ten golden years," The reason for this new honesty are less likely, however, in a new journalistic ethics, but rather in the dark sense that outside of the press conferences of the Federal Government and the major parties, hardly anyone can believe it.

If you look closely is because fixed quickly, concerns that the boom, especially small and precarious forms of employment. There are around five million people who pursue a job on the basis of 400 €. More than 2.2 million earned by a mini-job to something. About 4.2 million people are in employment, their pay is so low that they receive supplementary unemployment benefit II. Who at least 15 Working hours per week applies for some time no longer considered unemployed. ALG-I-recipients who are older than 58 years are not taken into account as one-euro jobbers and people who participate in training and rehabilitation measures. Almost 1.5 million people were recently in various measures, therefore they are not considered unemployed. There is also a "secret reserve" of up to one million people who would like a job for a livelihood, but not actively looking, either because they are financed through a family's income, find a nursery place for their children or simply do not have a chance to the labor market, or on unemployment benefits. Back in June The Federal Statistical Office announced that 8.6 million people looking for work. It is likely to have changed little since then, and in this magnitude moves accordingly the real dimension of unemployment, underemployment and economic marginalization.

Even with regard to the newly created jobs will be bleak from behind the facade, because the decline in official unemployment figures based on both statistical tricks on a large increase in temporary work. Much of the employment growth will take place in this segment, the number of temporary workers has now increased to 900 000. The data from the Federal Employment Agency (BA) Add suggests that the trend in the industry continues to reduce low-skilled jobs and to do the work of temporary workers. For the employee, the self can hardly be a working relationship in which they want to find yourself permanently.

Claus Matecki, a board member of the DGB says, "of an" abuse of temporary work. For disillusioned view it would probably consist of nothing but act as the use of this instrument for its original purpose. The national board of the DGB is estimated that at the end of the year will be more than a million temporary workers. In addition, many new jobs are still only temporary. A cursory look at the areas in which vacancies are filled, also reveals an imbalance: in health and social services, the number of social security contributions rose by 3.5 percent and economic services without temporary employment by 2.9 percent. In the manufacturing industry, however, there were 53 000 employees over the previous year less. Nevertheless, let

currently meet almost daring-looking projections. The Director of the Institute of German Economy in Cologne, Michael Huether, gave in an interview with the Passauer Neue Presse less than two million unemployed possible, and this already in 2012. Basis for such speculation are two main assumptions: First, it is hoped that a sustained recovery will create 400 000 new jobs, on the other it is predicted that the demographic changes will cause could be found for the disembarking from wage labor elderly more junior staff. Unlike in previous crises, this was the case in recent years, left more older workers leave their work, be succeeded as younger people. This relieved the development of statistics by more than 100 000 unemployed in the year. Already, the specter of Human Resources evoked - which is mildly absurd when one considers the reluctance of large companies, to provide adequate training capability. Above all, the hopes are likely to focus labor statistics that exceed the number of older unemployed people the magic of 58 years and thus fall out of the unemployment statistics. So ultimately is the finding that the real considerably smaller reduction in unemployment mainly through wage dumping and the creation of a broad low-wage sector is sought.

"Hartz IV effect," Hilmar Schneider, director says labor market at the Research Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) in Bonn - and is aware of the cynicism associated with this statement probably not aware of. It goes like this out that the threat of poverty and marginalization, especially among those "acts" that have just lost their jobs. Those affected would try anything to happen to this case can not. Schneider says that had the willingness to make concessions, increased with the introduction of Hartz IV. For example, more jobs would be accepted, the payment is smaller than it was in the previous employment of the case. This friendly description means nothing but a massive reduction in living standards of workers and a dramatic drop in the value of labor power.

The so vehemently argued, however, recovery could soon be over. Because it is based to a considerable extent on export surpluses. According to the Institute for Social Ecological Economic Research that provided in the second quarter of 2010, a growth contribution of 1.4 percentage points to GDP, which is about two-thirds of the increase. While the purchasing power will decline further, which hopes rest almost entirely on a further expansion of exports, therefore on the successful repression of foreign capital on the world market. Apart from the location-nationalist ideologies, which will return to popularity and not only play in the debate on the Greek public debt is important, but in the coming likely to occur in some months, trade union arguments again, there is little reason to believe that this expansion might persist permanently.

The two main segments of the German export surpluses, Europe and the U.S., are in a difficult economic situation. In the European countries make drastic austerity programs of various governments and the continued significant impact of the crisis for an economic stagnation, while it could be slowed in the U.S., the economic decline and possibly imminent hardly a new crisis. The compulsive euphoria that is currently disseminated by the federal government could, as early as next Year there are even more doubtful.